According to Business Insider, the US Air Force is scheduled to test launch an unarmed Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California between 11:01 pm Tuesday and 5:01 am Pacific time Wednesday. The missile will travel over 4,200 miles to a target in the Marshall Islands, marking a routine verification test that’s completely separate from President Trump’s recent nuclear testing announcement. The Minuteman III system is 50 years old and was supposed to be replaced by the Sentinel ICBM starting later this decade at $78 billion, but that timeline has been pushed to the 2030s with costs ballooning to over $140 billion. The Air Force currently only has Minuteman III tests planned through 2030 and may need to maintain these missiles into the 2050s. This test comes as Trump told CBS News’ 60 Minutes he intends to “test nuclear weapons like other countries do,” claiming Russia and China are testing but “don’t talk about it.”
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Routine test vs nuclear confusion
Here’s the thing that’s getting lost in all the noise: this Minuteman III launch was scheduled years in advance and happens regularly. The Air Force does these tests to verify the accuracy and reliability of their nuclear delivery systems. But Trump’s comments about testing nuclear weapons “like other countries do” created immediate confusion about whether he meant explosive nuclear testing (which the US hasn’t done since the 1990s) or just testing delivery systems like this Minuteman III. Energy Secretary Chris Wright tried to clarify, telling Fox News that “the tests we’re talking about right now are system tests” and “these are not nuclear explosions.” Basically, we’ve got a routine military exercise colliding with ambiguous political statements, and nobody seems entirely sure what the administration actually plans to do.
Aging missile problems
The Minuteman III is old. Really old. We’re talking about technology that entered service when Nixon was president. The Air Force has been trying to replace these missiles with the Sentinel program, but that’s turned into a classic defense procurement nightmare. Costs have nearly doubled from $78 billion to over $140 billion, and the timeline has slipped by years. The Pentagon blames unrealistic schedules, engineering problems, and an “atrophied industrial base” – which is bureaucrat-speak for “we don’t have the companies or expertise to build this stuff anymore.” So instead of replacing Minuteman IIIs starting this decade, the Air Force might be stuck maintaining these Cold War relics into the 2050s. Think about that – missiles designed in the 1960s potentially serving into the 2050s.
Testing controversy reality
Trump’s claims about Russia and China testing nuclear weapons got some backup from CIA Director John Ratcliffe and Senator Tom Cotton, who both posted on social media that Moscow and Beijing are conducting tests that exceed the “zero-yield” standard. But here’s where it gets tricky: Vice Adm. Richard Correll, Trump’s nominee to lead US Strategic Command, told senators that “neither China nor Russia has conducted a nuclear explosive test.” So we’ve got competing claims from different parts of the government. The reality is most nuclear powers, including the US, rely on subcritical experiments and computer simulations rather than full explosive tests. The Vandenberg test this week is exactly the kind of thing that keeps the nuclear triad operational without breaking testing moratoriums.
What’s actually happening
Look, here’s the bottom line: this Minuteman III test is business as usual for the military. The real story is the massive problems with the Sentinel replacement program and the confusing signals coming from the White House about nuclear testing policy. When Trump told 60 Minutes he wants to test “like other countries do,” was he talking about resuming explosive testing or just continuing delivery system tests? Even his own administration officials can’t seem to agree. Meanwhile, the Air Force is stuck with aging missiles that keep getting older while their replacement program faces billion-dollar overruns and multi-year delays. It’s a mess, and this week’s test is just a reminder of how much work needs to be done to modernize America’s nuclear arsenal.
