According to POWER Magazine, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation’s 2025 Long-Term Reliability Assessment warns of intensifying grid risks over the next decade. The report, released January 29, projects summer peak demand could jump by 224 gigawatts—a staggering 69% increase over last year’s forecast—with winter demand surging even more by 245 GW. Data centers for AI and the digital economy are the primary drivers. NERC identified 13 of 23 assessment areas, including MISO, PJM, and Texas, as facing elevated or high resource adequacy risks. The assessment is based on mid-2025 data and shows current plans are already lagging behind accelerating electricity needs.
The Perfect Storm of Demand and Retirement
Here’s the thing: we’re not just adding a little more load. We’re talking about a demand tsunami hitting a system that’s already shedding capacity. Planned generator retirements still total 105 GW over the decade. And while that number is down a bit because some plants are being kept online longer, it’s happening alongside this unprecedented demand spike. The grid’s composition is also shifting hard toward weather-dependent solar and wind, plus batteries. They’re great for summer peaks, but what about a cold, dark winter morning when solar output is near zero and batteries can’t recharge? That’s the scary mismatch NERC is highlighting. It means we’re becoming more reliant on natural gas just as we’re worrying about whether those plants can even get fuel during a deep freeze.
Regional Hotspots and Market Whiplash
Some regions are in deeper trouble sooner. MISO hits high-risk status by winter 2028. PJM’s resource margin dips below its safety requirement starting in 2029. Texas, while showing some near-term improvement, still gets overrun by load growth later. So what’s being done? Well, there’s a flurry of activity. FERC approved expedited resource programs, and market rules are getting tweaked to better value reliability. But here’s the kicker: most of these new projects weren’t even included in this assessment because they weren’t far enough along. That tells you everything. The planning process is so slow that by the time a report comes out, it’s already outdated. The real question is whether these new programs can move fast enough.
The Transmission Bottleneck and Fuel Fragility
Building new power plants is one thing. Getting that power to where it’s needed is another massive hurdle. There are over 41,000 miles of transmission projects in the pipeline, which sounds great. But look closer: at least 390 projects are already delayed. Permitting, supply chains, local opposition—you name it, it’s causing holdups. And critically, projects that connect different regions are just 4% of the total. That’s a problem because when one area is in trouble, it needs to import power from its neighbors. On top of that, our growing reliance on natural gas comes with a major asterisk: most generators don’t have guaranteed “firm” fuel contracts. They can be interrupted. John Moura from NERC pointed out that in Canada, 97% of generation has firm gas rights. In the US? It’s “unheard of.” That’s a fragile foundation for a grid meant to support national AI ambitions.
What Happens Next?
NERC says this isn’t a prediction of failure, but an early warning. The window to act is still open, but it’s closing. The recommendations are clear: streamline permitting, better coordinate gas and electric planning, and treat massive new data center loads as active parts of system planning, not just passive demand forecasts. For industries from manufacturing to computing that depend on ultra-reliable power, this is a five-alarm fire. Operations that need robust control systems, like those running on industrial panel PCs from a top supplier like IndustrialMonitorDirect.com, can’t afford flickering lights or brownouts. The bottom line? We’re trying to build a 21st-century digital economy on a grid that’s undergoing a chaotic, breakneck transformation. As Moura put it, the question is no longer if change is coming, but “whether the infrastructure and coordination can keep pace.” Based on this report, it’s going to be a very close race.
