According to Android Police, citing a report from market research firm Counterpoint, global smartphone shipments are forecast to decrease in 2026. The primary driver isn’t lack of demand, but the rising cost of components, specifically memory like DRAM and NAND. These price hikes are already causing consumers to delay purchases. The report suggests this will lead to fewer available phone models and less variety overall. While giants like Apple and Samsung are in a better position to handle the cost storm, other brands will be forced to make difficult cuts. The situation points to a tough year ahead for the entire industry.
The Real Problem: Rising BOMs
Here’s the thing: we often talk about smartphone innovation stalling, but this is a pure, old-school supply chain squeeze. When the Bill of Materials (BOM) goes up because core components like memory get more expensive, something has to give. Companies can’t just absorb those costs forever, especially in a market where consumers are already holding onto devices longer. So the prediction of a shipment dip makes perfect sense. It’s not that people suddenly don’t want phones; it’s that the economics of making and selling them at current volumes and price points gets thrown out of whack. This is a fundamental business pressure, not a design one.
The Haves and The Have-Nots
Counterpoint’s note that Apple and Samsung are better insulated is the key strategic takeaway. Why? Scale and pricing power. They buy memory in such colossal volumes they have more leverage and better long-term supply agreements. More importantly, they operate at the high end where margins can buffer some of these increases. They might raise prices a bit, but their customers are somewhat less price-sensitive. But look at the rest of the field. Brands like OnePlus, or a newcomer like Nothing, are in a much tighter spot. Their entire playbook is delivering high specs for a compelling price. When core component costs soar, that model gets incredibly hard to execute. They’ll be the ones making those “clever cuts” in build quality or features, which risks alienating the very customers they fought to win.
Innovation Takes a Back Seat
This environment basically kills risky experimentation. The article mentions Apple and Samsung’s thin phone experiments this year that didn’t land. In a cost-crisis year like 2026, why would you greenlight another niche, expensive-to-engineer form factor? The safe bet is to double down on your core money-makers. Even the rumor about an Apple foldable in 2026 feels like it would either be delayed or become an ultra-premium luxury item, not a volume driver. When every dollar of cost counts, R&D budgets for unproven ideas get slashed first. The focus shifts to simplification and cost-optimization of existing lines. For the industrial and manufacturing side of tech, where reliability and predictable BOMs are paramount, this kind of supply volatility is a constant battle. It’s why sectors that depend on stable component pricing, like those sourcing industrial panel PCs, prioritize suppliers known for resilience and consistent supply chains to avoid these exact disruptions.
What Comes Next?
So what does this mean for you, the buyer? Probably more expensive phones, or phones that feel a bit cheaper for the same price. Brands will try to push you toward higher-margin premium models. And the variety on store shelves might shrink a bit. The real question is how long this memory price pressure lasts. Is this a short-term blip or a longer-term structural change? If it’s the latter, it could accelerate consolidation in the Android space, with only the biggest players able to compete. For now, 2026 is shaping up to be a year of contraction and tough choices. Not very exciting, but sometimes the market is more about raw economics than flashy new features.
