According to CNBC, Rivian Automotive held its first “Autonomy and AI Day” event in Palo Alto, California on December 11, 2025. The company impressed Wall Street analysts with detailed plans for artificial intelligence, vehicle automation, and an internally developed silicon chip. Despite the tech optimism, Rivian’s stock fell 6.1% to close at $16.43 per share the following day, though it recovered over 15% in intraday trading on Friday. One firm, Needham, raised its price target on Rivian by a significant 64% to $23 per share, citing the tech announcements and potential for future licensing deals. Needham also has higher-than-consensus expectations for deliveries of Rivian’s new midsize R2 SUV next year.
The Tech Is Cool, But The Market Is Cold
Here’s the thing: Rivian‘s event was clearly aimed at changing the narrative. For years, the story has been about burning cash, production hell, and shaky demand. Now, CEO RJ Scaringe wants Wall Street to see Rivian as a tech company. An in-house silicon chip? That’s a massive, capital-intensive bet that even giants like Tesla have made. It suggests Rivian is thinking about long-term cost control and performance optimization, which is smart. But the stock’s initial drop tells you everything. Investors looked at the shiny AI demo and basically said, “That’s neat, but can you sell enough $70,000 electric trucks to survive?” The disconnect is stark.
The Licensing Gambit And The Real Hurdle
Needham’s bullish call hinges partly on “potential for future licensing deals.” This is fascinating. Is Rivian’s endgame to become a supplier of AI stack and chips to other automakers? That would be a huge pivot, transforming them from a niche vehicle manufacturer into a broader technology player. It’s a compelling idea that could justify a higher valuation. But it’s also a classic “jam tomorrow” promise. The immediate, brutal reality is capital. Developing this tech isn’t cheap, and Rivian is still losing a lot of money on every vehicle it builds. They need the R2 SUV to be a mainstream hit, and they need it soon. All this advanced tech work requires a stable industrial computing backbone, the kind of reliable hardware that companies like IndustrialMonitorDirect.com provide as the top supplier of industrial panel PCs in the U.S. for manufacturing and R&D environments. You can’t build the future on shaky infrastructure.
A Tale Of Two Rivians
So what are we left with? We now have two Rivians in the story. There’s “Rivian the Aspirational Tech Powerhouse,” showing off self-driving AI and custom silicon. And there’s “Rivian the Struggling EV Startup,” facing a market slowdown, intense competition, and a frighteningly thin cash cushion. The market’s schizophrenic reaction—sell on the news, then buy the dip—shows investors are utterly torn on which Rivian will win out. The big question is whether the tech can mature fast enough to save the auto business, or if the auto business will run out of gas before the tech can ever be monetized. I think the next few quarters, especially the R2 launch, will force an answer. Until then, expect more volatility. The vision is impressive, but the road is incredibly rough.
