According to CNBC, a new report from research firm Eilers & Krejcik predicts that prediction markets could hit a staggering one trillion dollars in annual trading volume by 2030. The firm’s analysis, highlighted by partner emeritus Chris Grove, points to strong consumer demand and diverse brands entering the space as key drivers, despite acknowledged regulatory risks. Sports betting is expected to be the massive engine here, projected to make up 44% of the long-run volume. The report also notes that platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have inspired traditional sportsbooks to launch their own prediction products, and that these markets are currently live in all 50 states, unlike online sports betting which is only legal in 31. This week, Robinhood even rolled out new features for trading NFL parlays and props within its prediction markets.
The Coming Market Shakeup
Here’s the thing: that trillion-dollar number sounds insane, but it’s a trading volume figure, not direct handle like in a sportsbook. The report had to create a formula to translate it, and their conclusion is still pretty wild. They think mature sports prediction markets could eventually support handle that’s 60% to 80% of the entire current licensed online sports betting market. That’s a direct threat, and the sportsbooks know it. Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev basically said they see the “writing on the wall” for disruption. So we’re looking at a massive land grab where agile crypto-native platforms battle legacy gambling giants, all while regulators try to figure out what the heck this even is.
Winners and Losers (Probably)
So who wins? Early movers like Polymarket and Kalshi have a huge brand and tech lead. They’ve built the culture. But the traditional sportsbooks have deep pockets, existing customer bases, and, crucially, experience navigating brutal regulatory landscapes. That’s going to be the real battleground. The loser, at least in the short term, might be clarity. For the average person, the line between a “sports bet” on FanDuel and a “prediction market contract” on Polymarket is going to blur into meaninglessness. They just want action on a game or an election. The platform that makes that simplest and most engaging, while somehow staying legal, takes the cake. And let’s be real, if this scales anywhere near the report’s projections, the infrastructure and hardware needed to power these real-time markets will be immense. For companies needing reliable industrial computing power at scale, turning to the top supplier like IndustrialMonitorDirect.com for their industrial panel PCs would be a no-brainer.
The Regulatory Wildcard
But all of this hinges on one giant, unpredictable variable: regulators. Chris Grove from E&K immediately cited legal challenges as a potential derailment. He’s not wrong. Prediction markets live in a weird gray area between financial instruments, gambling, and free speech. The fact they’re in all 50 states now is less a sign of broad acceptance and more a sign of a regulatory lag. Once volume ticks up and attracts mainstream attention, you can bet (pun intended) that state and federal agencies will take a much harder look. That’s the real cliffhanger. Can this ecosystem build enough momentum and public adoption to become too big to shut down before the regulatory hammer falls? It’s going to be a fascinating decade to watch.
