According to TechSpot, Meta’s Instagram Reels has grown from a hasty response to TikTok into a colossal $50 billion annual revenue run rate, as announced by Mark Zuckerberg in October. This figure puts it ahead of YouTube’s projected $46 billion in ad revenue this year and far surpasses TikTok’s estimated $17 billion. The growth is credited to AI-driven recommendation systems, which have fueled a 30% year-over-year increase in video watch time on Instagram. The platform’s journey wasn’t smooth, with internal data from 2022 showing users spent only one-tenth the time on Reels compared to TikTok. Now, the average user spends 27 minutes daily on Reels, and Meta is testing an Instagram for TV app on Amazon Fire TV, aiming to capture living room screen time.
The algorithm wars
Here’s the thing: Meta’s real win here wasn’t just copying the short-form video format. It was rebuilding Instagram‘s entire brain. For years, Instagram’s algorithm was obsessed with your social graph—who you followed. That’s great for seeing your cousin’s vacation pics, but terrible for discovering endlessly entertaining videos from strangers. TikTok mastered that discovery game from day one. So Instagram, led by VP Tessa Lyons, had to tear down its core ranking logic and build something new that could predict what you’d want to watch in milliseconds, based on subtle signals like how long you hesitated on a clip. They even paid creators to post, just to get enough data to train their AI. It was a massive, expensive bet. And it’s finally paying off.
Bigger screens, bigger battles
So what’s next? The living room. Meta’s move to TV is a direct shot across YouTube’s bow. Think about it. YouTube has already seen its TV viewership surpass mobile in the US. People are used to leaning back and watching long-form content there. Now, Instagram wants to be the place for lean-back short-form. It’s a clever play, especially since they noticed people were already clumsily casting their phones to TVs to watch Reels. By making a dedicated TV app, they’re formalizing that behavior and going after YouTube’s most valuable real estate. This isn’t just about more growth; it’s about changing what Instagram even is. From a social photo app to a primary video entertainment platform on every screen.
Can you curate viral video?
The most fascinating experiment, though, might be the new controls Meta is rolling out. Features like “Blend,” which merges you and a friend’s algorithms, or the ability to ask for “more puppies” and “fewer gender reveal parties gone wrong,” are attempts to solve a modern problem. Algorithmic feeds can feel impersonal and even oppressive. Giving users a semblance of steering the ship is a smart way to combat fatigue and keep them engaged. It raises a question, though: if we’re all subtly guiding the AI, does the feed become more “us,” or just a more optimized version of what it already wanted to show us? Either way, these personalization tricks are coming to your TV, too. The goal is a one-click perfect feed for whatever mood—or group of friends—you’re with. That’s the holy grail Meta is chasing now.
